High probability of cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal by May 3

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There is a high probability of a cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal by May 3. Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere
The tropical weather outlook released by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones for North Indian Ocean on April 28 said that the probability of cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal is low for the 48-72 hours starting from April 28, moderate for 72-96 hours, and high for 96-120 hours.  
It said that the Madden-JulianOscillation (MJO) index lies currently in phase-3 with amplitude more than 1. It will continue in same phase till April 30. It will move to phase-4 with amplitude becoming less than 1 from May 1 onwards till May 4. MJO phase will support enhancement of convective activity over Bay of Bengal (BoB).
The tropical weather outlook said that many of the numerical models, including IMD Global Forecast System, suggest low-pressure area over South Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast BoB around April 30.
Most of the models suggest further Intensification into a depression during subsequent 48 hours and further intensification into a cyclonic storm thereafter in subsequent 24 hours. Most of the models suggest initial North-North-Westward movement and then North-North-Eastward movement of the system along Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards Myanmar coast during April 30 to May 3.

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