Weather India

A low-pressure area is likely to be formed over the South-East Arabian Sea in the first week of June. The Extended Range Outlook of RSMC said that the likelihood of MJO ’s further eastward propagation into phase-2 as well as the probable strengthening of cross equatorial south-westerlies, it is likely that a low-pressure area may form over southeast Arabian Sea towards the end of the week May 29-June4. Meanwhile, a tweet by Jason Nicholls, Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather, said that MJO pulse approaching the Indian Ocean can lead a low and perhaps a cyclonic storm spinning up over the Arabian Sea near Lakshadweep in early June. The tweet said that the exact track of low is unclear so areas from Gujarat and coastal Pakistan to Oman will need to monitor. Even the cyclonic strike probability of ECMWF also predicts a tropical cyclonic activity during the above-said period.        

There is a high probability of a cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal by May 3. Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere The tropical weather outlook released by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones for North Indian Ocean on April 28 said that the probability of cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal is low for the 48-72 hours starting from April 28, moderate for 72-96 hours, and high for 96-120 hours.   It said that the Madden-JulianOscillation (MJO) index lies currently in phase-3 with amplitude more than 1. It will continue in same phase till April 30. It will move to phase-4 with amplitude becoming less than 1 from May 1 onwards till May 4. MJO phase will support enhancement of convective activity over Bay of Bengal (BoB). The tropical weather outlook said that many of the numerical models, including IMD Global Forecast System, suggest low-pressure area over South Andaman Sea and adjoining so...

The month of May begin with a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal and its neighbourhood.   The extended range outlook, which was issued by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones for North Indian Ocean on April 23, has given a hint at this.   It said that the Madden-JulianOscillation (MJO) is currently in phase-2 with amplitude greater than phase-1. It is likely to move in phase-3 with amplitude greater than 1 during second half of the week ranging from April 24 to 30. Thereafter it is likely to remain in phase-3 with gradual reduction in amplitude till the end of the week ranging from May 1 to 7. With this, the phase and amplitude of MJO would become favourable for cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during April 24 – May 7. Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere (a low-pressure area). Most of the models including IMD Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Ens...