Weather India

A low-pressure area is likely to be formed over the South-East Arabian Sea in the first week of June. The Extended Range Outlook of RSMC said that the likelihood of MJO ’s further eastward propagation into phase-2 as well as the probable strengthening of cross equatorial south-westerlies, it is likely that a low-pressure area may form over southeast Arabian Sea towards the end of the week May 29-June4. Meanwhile, a tweet by Jason Nicholls, Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather, said that MJO pulse approaching the Indian Ocean can lead a low and perhaps a cyclonic storm spinning up over the Arabian Sea near Lakshadweep in early June. The tweet said that the exact track of low is unclear so areas from Gujarat and coastal Pakistan to Oman will need to monitor. Even the cyclonic strike probability of ECMWF also predicts a tropical cyclonic activity during the above-said period.        

The states of Odisha and West Bengal in India and Khepupara region in Bangladesh are likely to face a severe cyclonic storm by May 17. The RSMC bulletin said on May 16 that the well-marked low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal concentrated into depression has formed over Southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 5.30 am of IST on May 16 near latitude 10.4°N and longitude 87.0°E. This is around 1100 km south of Paradip in Odisha, 1250 km south of Digha in West Bengal, and 1330 km South-Southwest of Khepupara in Bangladesh. It is very likely to intensify rapidly into a cyclonic storm by the evening of May 16 and further into a severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move North-North-Westwards initially till May 17 and then re-curve North-North-Eastwards across Northwest Bay of Bengal towards West Bengal coast during May 18 to 20. Due to the cyclonic storm, light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated place...

The private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services has predicted the onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala on May 28 with an error margin of plus or minus two days. It said that a powerful system in the Bay of Bengal has been pushing the monsoon current, and the conditions are poised for an early onset over the Andaman Sea around May 16 or 17. The likely storm in the Bay of Bengal will take about five days to wind down its impact from the region. Drained seas across the coastline on either side will take a few days’ time to rejuvenate. Possibly there could be a lull in the weather activity across most parts of Peninsular India for a few days, it said. However, it said that the Southwest Monsoon onset over Kerala is announced on the fulfillment of specified conditions both over the ocean and overland. The wind direction, speed, and depth of westerly winds along with the quantum of outgoing longwave radiations (OLR) over the Indian Ocean in the proximity of the Comorin ...

The area over Andaman Sea and South Bay of Bengal (BoB), which is experiencing a low-pressure, is maintained under continuous watch for subsequent seven days beginning May 2. The tropical weather outlook, which was released by the RSMC on May 3, said that the numerical models such as ECMWF, IMD GFS, and CEP GSP are Indicating cyclogenesis over South-West BoB towards the end of the second week of May with rapid intensification and near North-North-West movement towards East-Central BoB up to Andhra Pradesh coast. It said that there Is large variation with regard to date of cyclogenesis. It may also be mentioned here that the ECMFW (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model had predicted a severe cyclonic storm stage over Bay of Bengal in the second week of May. Meanwhile, the afternoon weather bulletin of IMD for May 3 said that the low-pressure area over South Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast BoB persists. Associated cyclonic circulation extends up to mid-tro...

The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model has predicted a severe cyclonic storm stage over Bay of Bengal in the second week of May. The tropical weather outlook for May 2, issued by the New Delhi-based Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC), said that ECMWF is indicating development of depression over South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood around May 4 with further intensification up to ‘very severe cyclonic storm’ stage and near North-North-Westwards movement towards West-Central Bay of Bengal (BoB) during subsequent five days. It said that IMD Genesis Potential Parameter Index is indicating potential cyclogenesis zone over Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast BoB with near North-North-Eastwards shifting of this zone during May 2 to May 6. However, all other models are indicating no cyclogenesis over the BoB. In view of these observations, the area over Andaman Sea and South BoB is maintained under continuous watch for next five days, it said. ...

As expected, a low-pressure area formed over South Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on May 1. Associated cyclonic circulation extends up to 4.5 km above mean sea level. An IMD bulletin said that the low-pressure area is very likely to become more marked over the same region during next 48 hours, concentrate into a depression over Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal during subsequent 48 hours and likely to intensify further thereafter. It is very likely to move North-North-Westwards gradually till May 5. Under the influence of trough / wind discontinuity, Peninsular India is likely to experience isolated to scattered rain / thundershowers during next five days with isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu and Puduchery, Kerala and Mahe and Coastal Karnataka during next 24 hours. Ongoing intense thunderstorm activity over Northeast India and adjoining eastern states likely to continue during next five days. A fresh western disturbance is likely...

There is a high probability of a cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal by May 3. Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere The tropical weather outlook released by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones for North Indian Ocean on April 28 said that the probability of cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal is low for the 48-72 hours starting from April 28, moderate for 72-96 hours, and high for 96-120 hours.   It said that the Madden-JulianOscillation (MJO) index lies currently in phase-3 with amplitude more than 1. It will continue in same phase till April 30. It will move to phase-4 with amplitude becoming less than 1 from May 1 onwards till May 4. MJO phase will support enhancement of convective activity over Bay of Bengal (BoB). The tropical weather outlook said that many of the numerical models, including IMD Global Forecast System, suggest low-pressure area over South Andaman Sea and adjoining so...

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Myanmar have forecast the formation of depression in Bay of Bengal during the first week of May. The indication is that the low-pressure area is likely to become a depression by May 2. IMD’s evening bulletin for April 27 said that a low-pressure area is very likely to form over South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood around April 30. “It is very likely to become more marked and concentrate into a depression during subsequent 48 hours,” it said, adding that it is very likely to move north-north-westwards initially and then north-north-eastwards along Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards Myanmar coast during April 30 – May 3. Under its influence, squally winds -- speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph on April 30 and wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph on May 1 -- are likely to prevail over North Sumatra coast, South Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining Southeast Ba...

The Weather Channel (an IBM Business) has said that the low-pressure area being forecast near South Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal by April 30, if intensifies, could move towards the east coast of India and could be the first cyclone of the 2020 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. Quoting the experts, The Weather Channel (TWC) said on its website that it is too early to predict whether the system will intensify into a cyclone. “The prediction confidence is low right now, and there is no agreement among models at this moment,” it said. The morning bulletin of IMD for April 27 said that a low-pressure area is very likely to form over South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood around April 30. It is very likely to intensify further during subsequent 48 hours. It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and then north-north-eastwards along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during April 30 – May 3. Under its influence, Squally winds, speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting...

The month of May begin with a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal and its neighbourhood.   The extended range outlook, which was issued by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones for North Indian Ocean on April 23, has given a hint at this.   It said that the Madden-JulianOscillation (MJO) is currently in phase-2 with amplitude greater than phase-1. It is likely to move in phase-3 with amplitude greater than 1 during second half of the week ranging from April 24 to 30. Thereafter it is likely to remain in phase-3 with gradual reduction in amplitude till the end of the week ranging from May 1 to 7. With this, the phase and amplitude of MJO would become favourable for cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during April 24 – May 7. Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere (a low-pressure area). Most of the models including IMD Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Ens...

According to the UK’s Met Office, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is characterised by an eastward spread of large regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, mainly observed over the Indian and Pacific Ocean. How does MJO work? An area of enhanced tropical rainfall is first apparent over the Western Indian Oceans, which spreads eastwards into the warm waters of the tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall tends to lose its identity as it moves over the cooler waters of the Eastern Pacific, before reappearing at some point over the Indian Ocean again. A wet phase of enhanced convection (rainfall) is followed by a dry phase, where thunderstorm activity is suppressed (no rainfall). Each cycle lasts approximately 30-60 days and there are eight phases, it says. Following are the phases of MJO, according to the Met Office of the UK. Phase 1 – Enhanced convection (rainfall) develops over the Western Indian Ocean. Phase 2 and 3 – Enhanced convection (rain...