Weather India

A low-pressure area is likely to be formed over the South-East Arabian Sea in the first week of June. The Extended Range Outlook of RSMC said that the likelihood of MJO ’s further eastward propagation into phase-2 as well as the probable strengthening of cross equatorial south-westerlies, it is likely that a low-pressure area may form over southeast Arabian Sea towards the end of the week May 29-June4. Meanwhile, a tweet by Jason Nicholls, Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather, said that MJO pulse approaching the Indian Ocean can lead a low and perhaps a cyclonic storm spinning up over the Arabian Sea near Lakshadweep in early June. The tweet said that the exact track of low is unclear so areas from Gujarat and coastal Pakistan to Oman will need to monitor. Even the cyclonic strike probability of ECMWF also predicts a tropical cyclonic activity during the above-said period.        

The area over Andaman Sea and South Bay of Bengal (BoB), which is experiencing a low-pressure, is maintained under continuous watch for subsequent seven days beginning May 2. The tropical weather outlook, which was released by the RSMC on May 3, said that the numerical models such as ECMWF, IMD GFS, and CEP GSP are Indicating cyclogenesis over South-West BoB towards the end of the second week of May with rapid intensification and near North-North-West movement towards East-Central BoB up to Andhra Pradesh coast. It said that there Is large variation with regard to date of cyclogenesis. It may also be mentioned here that the ECMFW (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model had predicted a severe cyclonic storm stage over Bay of Bengal in the second week of May. Meanwhile, the afternoon weather bulletin of IMD for May 3 said that the low-pressure area over South Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast BoB persists. Associated cyclonic circulation extends up to mid-tro...

The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model has predicted a severe cyclonic storm stage over Bay of Bengal in the second week of May. The tropical weather outlook for May 2, issued by the New Delhi-based Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC), said that ECMWF is indicating development of depression over South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood around May 4 with further intensification up to ‘very severe cyclonic storm’ stage and near North-North-Westwards movement towards West-Central Bay of Bengal (BoB) during subsequent five days. It said that IMD Genesis Potential Parameter Index is indicating potential cyclogenesis zone over Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast BoB with near North-North-Eastwards shifting of this zone during May 2 to May 6. However, all other models are indicating no cyclogenesis over the BoB. In view of these observations, the area over Andaman Sea and South BoB is maintained under continuous watch for next five days, it said. ...

The name Arnab may sound familiar to the Indian television viewers. Lulu is a known for the chain of supermarkets in India and abroad. These are some of the 169 names proposed for tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. The WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (PTC) has come out with a list of 169 names for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Each of the 13 members of PTC has contributed 13 names each to the list.   There is a strict procedure to determine a list of tropical cyclone names in an ocean basin(s) by the Tropical Cyclone Regional Body responsible for that basin(s) at its annual/biennial meeting. India, which is one of the 13 members of the panel, has contributed names such as Gati, Tej, Murasu, Aag, Vyom, Jhar, Probaho, Neer, Prabhanjan, Ghurni, Ambud, Jaladhi and Vega to the list. However, the name Arnab (pronounced as Ornab) has been proposed by the other member of the panel Bangladesh. The name Lulu has been contrib...