May to begin with low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal

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The month of May begin with a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal and its neighbourhood.  
The extended range outlook, which was issued by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones for North Indian Ocean on April 23, has given a hint at this.  
It said that the Madden-JulianOscillation (MJO) is currently in phase-2 with amplitude greater than phase-1. It is likely to move in phase-3 with amplitude greater than 1 during second half of the week ranging from April 24 to 30. Thereafter it is likely to remain in phase-3 with gradual reduction in amplitude till the end of the week ranging from May 1 to 7.
With this, the phase and amplitude of MJO would become favourable for cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during April 24 – May 7.
Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere (a low-pressure area).
Most of the models including IMD Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS), IITM CFS and ECMWF are predicting cyclogenesis over Southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood during the initial half of the week ranging from May 1 to 7.
Only NCEP GFS predicts it to happen towards the end of the week ranging from April 24-30. The Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) based on IMD GFS is indicating potential zone for cyclogenesis over south Andaman Sea during later part of April 24-30 and the GPP based on CGEPS (MME) is also predicting moderate probability over South Bay of Bengal for April24-May 7.
Considering the above, cyclogenesis is expected over Southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood during the initial part of week ranging from May 1 - 7. Considering the prevailing environmental parameters, along with the probable cyclogenesis from majority of the numerical models, there is high probability for formation of a depression and its further intensification over Southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood during the initial half of May 1-7, it said.

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