Weather India

The name Arnab may sound familiar to the Indian television viewers. Lulu is a known for the chain of supermarkets in India and abroad. These are some of the 169 names proposed for tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. The WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (PTC) has come out with a list of 169 names for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Each of the 13 members of PTC has contributed 13 names each to the list.   There is a strict procedure to determine a list of tropical cyclone names in an ocean basin(s) by the Tropical Cyclone Regional Body responsible for that basin(s) at its annual/biennial meeting. India, which is one of the 13 members of the panel, has contributed names such as Gati, Tej, Murasu, Aag, Vyom, Jhar, Probaho, Neer, Prabhanjan, Ghurni, Ambud, Jaladhi and Vega to the list. However, the name Arnab (pronounced as Ornab) has been proposed by the other member of the panel Bangladesh. The name Lulu has been contrib...

There is a high probability of a cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal by May 3. Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere The tropical weather outlook released by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones for North Indian Ocean on April 28 said that the probability of cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal is low for the 48-72 hours starting from April 28, moderate for 72-96 hours, and high for 96-120 hours.   It said that the Madden-JulianOscillation (MJO) index lies currently in phase-3 with amplitude more than 1. It will continue in same phase till April 30. It will move to phase-4 with amplitude becoming less than 1 from May 1 onwards till May 4. MJO phase will support enhancement of convective activity over Bay of Bengal (BoB). The tropical weather outlook said that many of the numerical models, including IMD Global Forecast System, suggest low-pressure area over South Andaman Sea and adjoining so...

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Myanmar have forecast the formation of depression in Bay of Bengal during the first week of May. The indication is that the low-pressure area is likely to become a depression by May 2. IMD’s evening bulletin for April 27 said that a low-pressure area is very likely to form over South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood around April 30. “It is very likely to become more marked and concentrate into a depression during subsequent 48 hours,” it said, adding that it is very likely to move north-north-westwards initially and then north-north-eastwards along Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards Myanmar coast during April 30 – May 3. Under its influence, squally winds -- speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph on April 30 and wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph on May 1 -- are likely to prevail over North Sumatra coast, South Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining Southeast Ba...

The Weather Channel (an IBM Business) has said that the low-pressure area being forecast near South Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal by April 30, if intensifies, could move towards the east coast of India and could be the first cyclone of the 2020 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. Quoting the experts, The Weather Channel (TWC) said on its website that it is too early to predict whether the system will intensify into a cyclone. “The prediction confidence is low right now, and there is no agreement among models at this moment,” it said. The morning bulletin of IMD for April 27 said that a low-pressure area is very likely to form over South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood around April 30. It is very likely to intensify further during subsequent 48 hours. It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and then north-north-eastwards along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during April 30 – May 3. Under its influence, Squally winds, speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting...

India is likely to witness a low-pressure area near South Andaman Sea around April 30. The IMD bulletin for April 26 said that a low-pressure area is likely to develop over south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal around April 30, and it  is likely to become more marked over the same region subsequently. Initially it is likely to move north-north-westward and then north-north-eastward towards Myanmar-Southeast Bangladesh coasts during subsequent three-four days. Under its influence, squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph is very likely over South Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal from April 30 for subsequent 48 hours. It advised fishermen not to venture into these areas. It forecast widespread rain and thundershowers over Andaman and Nicobar Islands with scattered heavy to very heavy falls. Scattered to fairly widespread rain and thundershowers likely over East and Northeast India and over parts of peninsular India. Isolat...

The month of May begin with a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal and its neighbourhood.   The extended range outlook, which was issued by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones for North Indian Ocean on April 23, has given a hint at this.   It said that the Madden-JulianOscillation (MJO) is currently in phase-2 with amplitude greater than phase-1. It is likely to move in phase-3 with amplitude greater than 1 during second half of the week ranging from April 24 to 30. Thereafter it is likely to remain in phase-3 with gradual reduction in amplitude till the end of the week ranging from May 1 to 7. With this, the phase and amplitude of MJO would become favourable for cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during April 24 – May 7. Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere (a low-pressure area). Most of the models including IMD Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Ens...

According to the UK’s Met Office, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is characterised by an eastward spread of large regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, mainly observed over the Indian and Pacific Ocean. How does MJO work? An area of enhanced tropical rainfall is first apparent over the Western Indian Oceans, which spreads eastwards into the warm waters of the tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall tends to lose its identity as it moves over the cooler waters of the Eastern Pacific, before reappearing at some point over the Indian Ocean again. A wet phase of enhanced convection (rainfall) is followed by a dry phase, where thunderstorm activity is suppressed (no rainfall). Each cycle lasts approximately 30-60 days and there are eight phases, it says. Following are the phases of MJO, according to the Met Office of the UK. Phase 1 – Enhanced convection (rainfall) develops over the Western Indian Ocean. Phase 2 and 3 – Enhanced convection (rain...